Analysis of possible outcomes for Canada's Clean Economy Investment Tax Credits amid political and legislative uncertainty. Published January 2025.
Enacted vs. Not-Yet-Enacted Credits
As of the date of publication, Bill C-59 had enacted the Clean Technology ITC, Clean Technology Manufacturing ITC, CCUS ITC, and Clean Hydrogen ITC. The Clean Electricity ITC was announced but not yet enacted, making it more vulnerable to political change.
Political Risk Assessment
The five Clean Economy ITCs were supported by all major parties during the 2025 election campaign, suggesting bipartisan protection for the enacted credits. The Clean Electricity ITC faces more uncertainty as it requires ongoing legislative action and provincial coordination.
Planning Recommendations
Project developers should design their financial models around enacted credits and treat not-yet-enacted provisions as upside optionality. Prevailing wage compliance infrastructure should be built for all projects regardless of credit uncertainty.